Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:46 pm at Fort Lauderdale); 6 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 45%, against 33% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1419 at 19:59, 33%.

Safest bet today DL 1419 FLL 19:59 → JFK 23:05 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time Riskiest B6 2702 FLL 18:37 → JFK 21:32 · 58% chance 15+ min late

Weather 45% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1419 Delta Flight history →	FLL 19:59	JFK 23:05	33%	11%	0.4%	59%
B6 1902 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 22:15	JFK 01:18	37%	19%	0.8%	64%
DL 305 Delta Flight history →	FLL 15:29	JFK 18:48	38%	14%	0.6%	72%
B6 1802 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:35	JFK 21:39	58%	27%	0.8%	61%worse than usual
B6 2702 JetBlue	FLL 18:37	JFK 21:32	58%	26%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON