Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:40 pm at Fort Lauderdale); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via DFW, leaving 19:11, is the safest bet: 32% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 49% of the time.

Nonstops today


B6 607 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:27	LAS 22:32	38%	12%	0.3%	70%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FLL 18:40 → SLC 21:38DL 745	1h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:15 → LAS 23:40DL 1662	8h 00m	86%	61%
Frontier Details →	FLL 18:36 → DFW 20:53F9 3317	1h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:51 → LAS 23:47F9 3885	8h 11m	100%	44%
American Details →	FLL 19:11 → DFW 21:23AA 1868	1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:59 → LAS 23:48AA 2998	7h 37m	77%	32%
Tight connection: often missed
Frontier Details →	FLL 18:50 → DFW 21:06F9 1973	1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:51 → LAS 23:47F9 3885	7h 57m	73%	32%
American Details →	FLL 19:11 → DFW 21:23AA 1868	1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:45 → LAS 23:44AA 624	7h 33m	65%	27%
Southwest Details →	FLL 20:30 → BNA 21:50WN 1852	53m Nashville	BNA 22:43 → LAS 00:45 +1WN 585	7h 15m	49%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON