Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:43 am at Fort Lauderdale); 5 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 20–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 573 FLL 17:34 → LAX 19:57 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2501 FLL 21:35 → LAX 23:58 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 573 Delta	FLL 17:34	LAX 19:57	20%	5%	0.1%	no record
B6 101 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 15:52	LAX 18:37	26%	9%	0.2%	72%
B6 2501 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:35	LAX 23:58	28%	9%	0.2%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	FLL 13:10 → IAH 15:00UA 2162	1h 31m Houston	IAH 16:31 → LAX 18:08UA 1743	7h 58m	88%	59%
Delta Details →	FLL 18:40 → SLC 21:38DL 745	1h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → LAX 23:42DL 1197	8h 02m	76%	55%
United Details →	FLL 19:13 → IAH 21:09UA 2474	53m Houston	IAH 22:02 → LAX 23:43UA 434	7h 30m	76%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON