Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:58 pm at Fort Lauderdale); 8 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 52%, against 36% on a calm day. Safest: DL 701 at 19:59, 36%.

Safest bet today DL 701 FLL 19:59 → LGA 23:02 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time Riskiest B6 672 FLL 18:38 → LGA 21:36 · 61% chance 15+ min late

Weather 52% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 701 Delta Flight history →	FLL 19:59	LGA 23:02	36%	11%	0.5%	35%
DL 2321 Delta Flight history →	FLL 19:33	LGA 22:27	43%	14%	0.5%	62%
DL 1181 Delta Flight history →	FLL 15:05	LGA 18:19	47%	11%	0.6%	68%worse than usual
AA 2808 American Flight history →	FLL 17:49	LGA 20:49	54%	19%	0.6%	33%
B6 572 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:00	LGA 22:59	55%	20%	0.6%	55%
AA 2968 American	FLL 17:37	LGA 20:41	55%	18%	0.6%	no record
B6 472 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 16:51	LGA 19:50	58%	23%	0.8%	74%worse than usual
B6 1172 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:35	LGA 21:35	60%	24%	0.7%	54%worse than usual
B6 672 JetBlue	FLL 18:38	LGA 21:36	61%	23%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON