tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:17 pm at Fort Lauderdale); 3 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: WN 4165 at 19:01 is the safest bet, 40% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 51%.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4165 Southwest FLL 19:01 MCO 20:09 40% 14% 0.5% no record
B6 1948 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 20:59 MCO 22:09 51% 22% 0.8% 64%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → FLL 15:30 → BNA 16:50WN 1715 3h 35m Nashville BNA 20:25 → MCO 23:30WN 572 8h 00m 98% 56%
UnitedDetails → FLL 16:20 → ORD 19:00UA 403 1h 21m Chicago ORD 20:21 → MCO 00:09 +1UA 617 7h 49m 78% 55%
FrontierDetails → FLL 16:14 → CLE 19:12F9 3451 2h 35m Cleveland CLE 21:47 → MCO 00:21 +1F9 2280 8h 07m 90% 55%
UnitedDetails → FLL 15:14 → IAH 17:10UA 2724 2h 40m Houston IAH 19:50 → MCO 23:22UA 2323 8h 08m 87% 54%
DeltaDetails → FLL 18:28 → ATL 20:35DL 2345 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 23:29 → MCO 01:05 +1DL 1562 6h 37m 96% 47%
AmericanDetails → FLL 16:12 → CLT 18:26AA 1875 1h 49m Charlotte CLT 20:15 → MCO 22:00AA 3200 5h 48m 90% 43%
FrontierDetails → FLL 18:54 → CLT 21:07F9 1984 1h 52m Charlotte CLT 22:59 → MCO 00:54 +1F9 1555 6h 00m 83% 42%
DeltaDetails → FLL 15:44 → ATL 17:54DL 1341 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 21:25 → MCO 23:02DL 1733 7h 18m 98% 41%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → FLL 17:29 → DFW 19:49AA 1862 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:35 → MCO 00:21 +1AA 1336 6h 52m 38% 15%
JetBlueDetails → FLL 16:51 → LGA 19:50B6 472 1h 09m New York LGA 20:59 → MCO 23:52B6 699 7h 01m 48% 15%
FrontierDetails → FLL 18:35 → DFW 20:52F9 3317 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:50 → MCO 01:42 +1F9 4192 7h 07m 35% 14%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON