Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:03 pm at Fort Lauderdale); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 51% (calm day: 31%). Best bet: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 19:45, 28% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	FLL 19:45 → ATL 21:54DL 1295	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	5h 54m	72%	28%
Southwest Details →	FLL 20:30 → BNA 21:50WN 1852	50m Nashville	BNA 22:40 → MSP 00:52 +1WN 4934	5h 22m	48%	21%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON