Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:35 pm at Fort Lauderdale); 10 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Today: AA 948 at 20:08 is the safest bet, 35% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38–58%.

Safest bet today AA 948 FLL 20:08 → PHL 23:09 · 35% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2610 FLL 20:41 → PHL 23:44 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 49% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 47% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 948 American	FLL 20:08	PHL 23:09	35%	12%	0.5%	no record
AA 3247 American Flight history →	FLL 20:01	PHL 22:53	38%	12%	0.5%	57%
B6 376 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	PHL 23:53	53%	19%	0.6%	68%worse than usual
F9 4440 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 21:45	PHL 00:39	53%	24%	1.4%	51%
B6 746 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 19:36	PHL 22:29	55%	25%	0.7%	48%
F9 2610 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 20:41	PHL 23:44	58%	24%	1.4%	74%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON