Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:03 pm at Fort Lauderdale); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 48%, against 35% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1875 at 21:55, 45%.

Nonstops today


WN 1875 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 21:55	STL 23:45	45%	12%	0.1%	59%
WN 1933 Southwest	FLL 19:40	STL 20:53	51%	12%	0.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FLL 19:45 → ATL 21:54DL 1295	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	5h 08m	76%	25%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	FLL 19:41 → CLT 21:52AA 1861	1h 04m Charlotte	CLT 22:56 → STL 23:58AA 459	5h 17m	64%	39%
Southwest Details →	FLL 20:30 → BNA 21:50WN 1852	55m Nashville	BNA 22:45 → STL 00:09 +1WN 277	4h 39m	48%	23%
American Details →	FLL 19:11 → DFW 21:23AA 1868	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:12 → STL 23:58AA 3049	5h 47m	45%	18%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON