Today: AA 3557 at 20:01 is the safest bet, 31% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 39–45%.

Safest bet today AA 3557 GSP 20:01 → DFW 21:45 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time Riskiest AA 1805 GSP 17:31 → DFW 19:25 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 40% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 42% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3557 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSP 20:01	DFW 21:45	31%	6%	1.4%	63%
MQ 3483 Envoy	GSP 19:47	DFW 21:26	39%	6%	1.5%	no record
AA 1897 American Flight history →	GSP 17:28	DFW 19:15	45%	11%	1.3%	55%
AA 1805 American Flight history →	GSP 17:31	DFW 19:25	45%	11%	1.3%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON