Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:04 pm at Greenville); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Dulles, leaving 19:40, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Greenville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	GSP 19:40 → IAD 21:19UA 4313 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 01m Dulles	IAD 22:20 → IAH 00:52 +1UA 1463	6h 12m	83%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	GSP 19:44 → ATL 21:04DL 1021	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	5h 13m	75%	24%
American Details →	GSP 20:01 → DFW 21:45AA 3557 · flown by Envoy	1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:48 → IAH 23:58AA 1914	4h 57m	64%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON