Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 43%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4595 at 21:10, 33%.

Safest bet today WN 4595 HOU 21:10 → ATL 00:20 · 33% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1223 HOU 17:15 → ATL 20:20 · 56% chance 15+ min late

Weather 43% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 4595 Southwest	HOU 21:10	ATL 00:20	33%	7%	0.6%	no record
DL 1195 Delta Flight history →	HOU 14:24	ATL 17:30	35%	8%	0.7%	80%worse than usual
DL 2381 Delta Flight history →	HOU 17:17	ATL 20:32	42%	9%	0.6%	77%worse than usual
WN 2006 Southwest	HOU 20:36	ATL 23:44	45%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 3355 Southwest	HOU 15:26	ATL 18:34	47%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 1223 Southwest	HOU 17:15	ATL 20:20	56%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON