tailodds FORECAST
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Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:46 am at Houston)
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Nashville, leaving 13:50, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → HOU 13:50 → BNA 15:45WN 478 3h 25m Nashville BNA 19:10 → BUR 21:44WN 224 9h 54m 100% 70%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 11:00 → DEN 12:30WN 1972 1h 05m Denver DEN 13:35 → BUR 15:05WN 3763 6h 05m 86% 66%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 16:35 → LAS 17:45WN 2003 2h 59m Las Vegas LAS 20:44 → BUR 22:01WN 2261 7h 26m 100% 61%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 12:30 → DAL 13:40WN 26 1h 25m Dallas DAL 15:05 → BUR 16:15WN 4076 5h 45m 89% 45%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → HOU 16:35 → LAS 17:45WN 2003 1h 05m Las Vegas LAS 18:50 → BUR 20:00WN 2202 5h 25m 73% 38%
AmericanDetails → HOU 16:14 → DFW 17:38AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest 3h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:46 → BUR 21:58AA 2597 7h 44m 71% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON