Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 54%, against 30% on a calm day. Safest: WN 62 at 21:50, 45%.

Safest bet today WN 62 HOU 21:50 → DAL 23:03 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest WN 40 HOU 16:00 → DAL 17:10 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Weather 54% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 62 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 21:50	DAL 23:03	45%	12%	1.0%	81%worse than usual
WN 60 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 21:00	DAL 22:15	46%	12%	1.1%	67%worse than usual
WN 64 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 22:05	DAL 23:15	52%	15%	1.0%	65%worse than usual
WN 52 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 19:05	DAL 20:19	55%	13%	1.1%	75%worse than usual
WN 54 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 20:32	DAL 21:47	56%	13%	1.1%	72%worse than usual
WN 44 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 17:05	DAL 18:15	58%	14%	1.0%	46%
WN 58 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 20:15	DAL 21:25	58%	13%	1.1%	74%worse than usual
WN 40 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 16:00	DAL 17:10	60%	20%	1.4%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON