Today: WN 2697 at 13:25 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–37%.

Safest bet today WN 2697 HOU 13:25 → DEN 14:55 · 24% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2037 HOU 17:16 → DEN 19:36 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2697 Southwest	HOU 13:25	DEN 14:55	24%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 2039 Southwest	HOU 22:36	DEN 00:55	24%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 4007 Southwest	HOU 19:31	DEN 21:52	26%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 2379 Southwest	HOU 14:37	DEN 16:57	26%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 1975 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 22:50	DEN 00:25	29%	7%	0.2%	67%
WN 4639 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 18:50	DEN 20:35	29%	6%	0.2%	72%
WN 761 Southwest	HOU 16:50	DEN 18:35	36%	7%	0.1%	no record
WN 2037 Southwest	HOU 17:16	DEN 19:36	37%	7%	0.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON