Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 70%, against 36% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1979 at 18:10, 68%.

Safest bet today WN 1979 HOU 18:10 → ELP 19:05 · 68% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time Riskiest WN 1980 HOU 22:45 → ELP 23:40 · 74% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Weather 70% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1979 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 18:10	ELP 19:05	68%	22%	0.4%	50%worse than usual
WN 2043 Southwest	HOU 22:30	ELP 23:31	70%	19%	0.4%	no record
WN 1980 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 22:45	ELP 23:40	74%	20%	0.3%	43%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON