Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 45%, against 30% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3483 at 17:30, 43%.

Safest bet today WN 3483 HOU 17:30 → LGA 22:05 · 43% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4684 HOU 15:00 → LGA 19:25 · 47% chance 15+ min late

Weather 45% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3483 Southwest	HOU 17:30	LGA 22:05	43%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 2190 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 17:25	LGA 21:55	46%	14%	0.7%	28%
WN 4684 Southwest	HOU 15:00	LGA 19:25	47%	13%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON