Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:28 pm at Houston)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36%, against 26% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2122 at 20:26, 36%.

Nonstops today


WN 2122 Southwest	HOU 20:26	OMA 22:43	36%	8%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 15:15 → MDW 17:40WN 2042	3h 45m Chicago	MDW 21:25 → OMA 23:00WN 2845	7h 45m	97%	60%
Southwest Details →	HOU 16:00 → DAL 17:10WN 40	4h 00m Dallas	DAL 21:10 → OMA 23:00WN 1103	7h 00m	100%	57%
Southwest Details →	HOU 17:05 → DAL 18:15WN 44	2h 21m Dallas	DAL 20:36 → OMA 22:34WN 4385	5h 29m	91%	51%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 22:28 → OMA 23:49DL 2010	6h 32m	79%	46%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	HOU 19:06 → DAL 20:19WN 52	51m Dallas	DAL 21:10 → OMA 23:00WN 1103	3h 54m	52%	29%
American Details →	HOU 18:49 → DFW 20:15AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest	1h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:30 → OMA 23:22AA 2628	4h 33m	59%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON