Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:21 pm at Houston)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 42% (calm day: 25%). Best bet: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 17:17, 55% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199	6h 36m	85%	55%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:30DL 1195	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 19:39 → ORD 20:51DL 1139	6h 27m	88%	41%
American Details →	HOU 18:49 → DFW 20:15AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest	1h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:12 → ORD 00:50 +1AA 1193	6h 01m	80%	41%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	HOU 18:49 → DFW 20:15AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest	1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:32 → ORD 23:50AA 1620	5h 01m	62%	31%
American Details →	HOU 16:14 → DFW 17:38AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:38 → ORD 21:22AA 1424	5h 08m	42%	16%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON