Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:17 pm at Houston); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1157 at 14:31, 36%.

Nonstops today


WN 1157 Southwest	HOU 14:31	PIT 18:21	36%	7%	0.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 15:15 → MDW 17:40WN 2042	2h 36m Chicago	MDW 20:16 → PIT 22:47WN 1397	6h 32m	94%	65%
Southwest Details →	HOU 13:50 → BNA 15:45WN 478	1h 15m Nashville	BNA 17:00 → PIT 19:35WN 3237	4h 45m	84%	58%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:30DL 1195	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 21:14 → PIT 23:00DL 2583	7h 36m	96%	58%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 23:04 → PIT 00:50 +1DL 1351	6h 33m	90%	58%
Southwest Details →	HOU 15:55 → FLL 19:25WN 3577	1h 26m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 20:51 → PIT 23:36WN 4952	6h 41m	82%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	HOU 17:30 → TPA 20:35WN 3709	1h 11m Tampa	TPA 21:46 → PIT 00:16 +1WN 4191	5h 46m	61%	32%
American Details →	HOU 16:14 → DFW 17:38AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest	2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:08 → PIT 23:54AA 1761	6h 40m	65%	31%
Southwest Details →	HOU 16:35 → LAS 17:45WN 2003	55m Las Vegas	LAS 18:40 → PIT 01:55 +1WN 2773	8h 20m	52%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON