Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 50%, against 33% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2215 at 22:03, 40%.

Safest bet today UA 2215 IAH 22:03 → LAX 23:38 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest WN 1372 HOU 22:40 → LAX 00:10 · 60% chance 15+ min late

Weather 50% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 21 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2215 United Flight history →	IAH 22:03	LAX 23:38	40%	10%	0.3%	75%worse than usual
UA 434 United Flight history →	IAH 22:02	LAX 23:44	42%	10%	0.2%	82%worse than usual
UA 483 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	LAX 21:26	46%	9%	0.2%	73%worse than usual
AA 5005 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 20:15	LAX 21:55	46%	10%	0.2%	80%worse than usual
UA 2658 United Flight history →	IAH 18:37	LAX 20:10	47%	10%	0.2%	82%worse than usual
OO 4998 SkyWest	IAH 20:16	LAX 21:58	47%	10%	0.2%	no record
UA 1563 United Flight history →	IAH 20:31	ONT 21:55	47%	19%	0.3%	79%worse than usual
F9 1755 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 22:19	LAX 23:57	53%	20%	0.6%	75%worse than usual
WN 4880 Southwest	HOU 21:35	ONT 22:58	55%	11%	0.2%	no record
UA 2761 United Flight history →	IAH 20:12	SNA 21:45	55%	14%	0.4%	83%worse than usual
UA 326 United	IAH 20:07	SNA 21:41	56%	14%	0.4%	no record
WN 4748 Southwest	HOU 22:45	LAX 00:12	58%	11%	0.2%	no record
WN 1372 Southwest	HOU 22:40	LAX 00:10	60%	11%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON