Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:09 pm at Dulles); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Charlotte, leaving 19:10, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Columbia on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Columbia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	IAD 19:10 → CLT 20:40AA 5447 · flown by PSA	2h 15m Charlotte	CLT 22:55 → CAE 23:58AA 5791 · flown by Piedmont	4h 48m	91%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IAD 20:22 → CLT 21:55AA 1450	1h 00m Charlotte	CLT 22:55 → CAE 23:58AA 5791 · flown by Piedmont	3h 36m	52%	37%
Delta Details →	IAD 19:26 → ATL 21:27DL 2902	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → CAE 23:43DL 3029	4h 17m	74%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON