Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:30 pm at Dulles); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 3488 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 17:30	CLE 19:03	15%	5%	0.8%	66%
UA 2131 United Flight history →	IAD 22:15	CLE 23:44	16%	4%	0.5%	85%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 17:26 → DTW 19:15DL 1787	3h 42m Detroit	DTW 22:57 → CLE 23:56DL 3646 · flown by SkyWest	6h 30m	96%	64%
United Details →	IAD 17:42 → ORD 18:50UA 2497	2h 30m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → CLE 23:49UA 457	6h 07m	92%	63%
United Details →	IAD 15:39 → ORD 17:02UA 1393	2h 57m Chicago	ORD 19:59 → CLE 22:29UA 1641	6h 50m	90%	62%
American Details →	IAD 19:10 → CLT 20:40AA 5447 · flown by PSA	2h 10m Charlotte	CLT 22:50 → CLE 00:29 +1AA 2260	5h 19m	92%	49%
Delta Details →	IAD 18:07 → ATL 20:14DL 1695	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → CLE 00:49 +1DL 1320	6h 42m	89%	45%
United Details →	IAD 15:37 → MCO 17:59UA 1101	2h 33m Orlando	MCO 20:32 → CLE 23:04UA 583	7h 27m	95%	41%
Delta Details →	IAD 15:45 → ATL 17:36DL 2135	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 19:55 → CLE 21:45DL 1339	6h 00m	89%	39%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IAD 15:39 → ORD 17:02UA 1393	51m Chicago	ORD 17:53 → CLE 20:21UA 2652	4h 42m	69%	48%
American Details →	IAD 20:22 → CLT 21:55AA 1450	55m Charlotte	CLT 22:50 → CLE 00:29 +1AA 2260	4h 07m	48%	25%
United Details →	IAD 17:22 → MCO 19:45UA 2463	47m Orlando	MCO 20:32 → CLE 23:04UA 583	5h 42m	41%	18%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON