Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:09 pm at Dulles)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 40% (calm day: 29%). Best bet: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 15:45, 44% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 15:45 → ATL 17:36DL 2135	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	7h 40m	93%	44%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	IAD 18:07 → ATL 20:14DL 1695	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	5h 18m	62%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON