Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 39–45% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 1863 IAD 19:36 → DFW 21:54 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest AA 524 IAD 15:16 → DFW 17:34 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 43% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 50% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1863 American Flight history →	IAD 19:36	DFW 21:54	39%	10%	1.0%	70%
AA 1904 American Flight history →	IAD 19:31	DFW 21:50	43%	11%	1.0%	51%
UA 2116 United Flight history →	IAD 18:00	DFW 20:25	44%	11%	0.7%	72%worse than usual
AA 524 American Flight history →	IAD 15:16	DFW 17:34	45%	14%	1.1%	83%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON