Today: UA 1463 at 22:20 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–37%.

Safest bet today UA 1463 IAD 22:20 → IAH 00:51 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 2217 IAD 17:59 → IAH 20:25 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1463 United Flight history →	IAD 22:20	IAH 00:51	24%	4%	0.4%	95%worse than usual
UA 1986 United Flight history →	IAD 22:20	IAH 00:45	26%	4%	0.4%	81%
UA 2217 United Flight history →	IAD 17:59	IAH 20:25	37%	7%	0.3%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON