Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:33 pm at Dulles); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 55%, against 34% on a calm day. Safest: YX 5779 at 18:21, 55%.

Nonstops today


YX 5779 Republic	IAD 18:21	JFK 19:46	55%	30%	2.2%	no record
DL 5076 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 19:14	JFK 21:00	36%	22%	12.7%	64%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 18:07 → ATL 20:14DL 1695	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → JFK 00:52 +1DL 1632	6h 45m	90%	53%
Delta Details →	IAD 15:45 → ATL 17:36DL 2135	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → JFK 23:09DL 2101	7h 24m	91%	46%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	IAD 19:26 → ATL 21:27DL 2902	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → JFK 00:52 +1DL 1632	5h 26m	70%	42%
Delta Details →	IAD 15:45 → ATL 17:36DL 2135	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398	5h 44m	69%	35%
American Details →	IAD 15:15 → DFW 17:34AA 524	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:31 → JFK 23:05AA 1248	7h 50m	50%	21%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON