tailodds FORECAST
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Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:17 pm at Dulles); 7 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 21–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 684 IAD 15:15 → LAX 17:47 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 2276 IAD 17:48 → LAX 20:25 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time
Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.
UA 684 United Flight history → IAD 15:15 LAX 17:47 21% 5% 0.5% 89%
UA 413 United Flight history → IAD 20:15 LAX 22:52 22% 5% 0.5% 82%
UA 1385 United Flight history → IAD 22:20 LAX 00:57 23% 6% 0.5% 84%
UA 2276 United Flight history → IAD 17:48 LAX 20:25 29% 6% 0.5% 71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → IAD 18:46 → MSP 20:56DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 1h 03m Minneapolis MSP 21:59 → LAX 23:53DL 2103 8h 07m 78% 58%
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:42 → ORD 18:50UA 2497 1h 28m Chicago ORD 20:18 → LAX 22:55UA 2499 8h 13m 80% 55%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 1h 21m Denver DEN 17:50 → LAX 19:27UA 1753 7h 52m 90% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON