Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 40%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: UA 689 at 22:33, 30%.

Safest bet today UA 689 IAD 22:33 → MCO 01:01 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest UA 2463 IAD 17:22 → MCO 19:45 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Weather 40% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 689 United Flight history →	IAD 22:33	MCO 01:01	30%	14%	1.0%	84%worse than usual
UA 2861 United	IAD 15:44	MCO 18:02	40%	24%	1.0%	no record
UA 1101 United Flight history →	IAD 15:37	MCO 17:59	43%	23%	1.0%	62%
UA 2463 United Flight history →	IAD 17:22	MCO 19:45	48%	24%	1.0%	71%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON