Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:56 pm at Dulles); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 2677 at 22:35, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 2677 United Flight history →	IAD 22:35	ORF 23:44	25%	7%	1.3%	75%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	IAD 19:10 → CLT 20:40AA 5447 · flown by PSA	1h 49m Charlotte	CLT 22:29 → ORF 23:45AA 2674	4h 35m	87%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON