Today: UA 367 at 22:21 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–37%.

Safest bet today UA 367 IAD 22:21 → SFO 01:15 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest UA 1757 IAD 17:55 → SFO 20:37 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 367 United Flight history →	IAD 22:21	SFO 01:15	23%	5%	0.5%	84%
UA 2075 United Flight history →	IAD 20:00	SFO 22:51	24%	6%	0.4%	52%
UA 2832 United	IAD 18:48	SFO 21:43	30%	7%	0.5%	no record
UA 1757 United Flight history →	IAD 17:55	SFO 20:37	37%	7%	0.5%	60%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	IAD 17:41 → DEN 19:45UA 599	1h 25m Denver	DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123	8h 15m	83%	54%
United Details →	IAD 17:48 → LAX 20:25UA 2276	1h 09m Los Angeles	LAX 21:34 → SFO 23:02UA 2056	8h 14m	76%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON