Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:48 pm at Dulles); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via O'Hare, leaving 17:42, is the safest bet: 47% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops today


UA 2410 United Flight history →	IAD 17:50	SLC 20:46	32%	8%	0.6%	80%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAD 17:42 → ORD 18:50UA 2497	1h 20m Chicago	ORD 20:10 → SLC 22:48UA 1710	7h 06m	77%	47%
United Details →	IAD 17:41 → DEN 19:45UA 599	1h 20m Denver	DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest	7h 03m	84%	46%
Delta Details →	IAD 18:07 → ATL 20:14DL 1695	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → SLC 00:26 +1DL 453	8h 19m	88%	35%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	IAD 17:26 → DTW 19:15DL 1787	1h 05m Detroit	DTW 20:20 → SLC 22:15DL 2117	6h 49m	74%	46%
Delta Details →	IAD 19:26 → ATL 21:27DL 2902	58m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → SLC 00:26 +1DL 453	7h 00m	64%	25%
American Details →	IAD 19:36 → DFW 21:54AA 1863	58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:52 → SLC 00:36 +1AA 2378	7h 00m	59%	22%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON