Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:33 pm at Dulles)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 15:56, is the safest bet: 48% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 49% of the time.

Nonstops today


UA 2319 United	IAD 17:42	SNA 20:19	25%	8%	1.0%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAD 15:39 → ORD 17:02UA 1393	2h 43m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → SNA 22:19UA 308	9h 40m	88%	67%
United Details →	IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862	1h 32m San Francisco	SFO 19:10 → SNA 20:55UA 589	9h 04m	92%	63%
United Details →	IAD 15:56 → DEN 18:03UA 395	2h 29m Denver	DEN 20:32 → SNA 22:01UA 725	9h 05m	95%	60%
United Details →	IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126	2h 41m Denver	DEN 19:10 → SNA 20:40UA 1704	9h 05m	99%	59%
American Details →	IAD 15:15 → DFW 17:34AA 524	3h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:16 → SNA 22:24AA 348	10h 09m	93%	53%
Delta Details →	IAD 15:45 → ATL 17:36DL 2135	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826	9h 40m	91%	47%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IAD 17:42 → ORD 18:50UA 2497	55m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → SNA 22:19UA 308	7h 37m	49%	37%
United Details →	IAD 17:41 → DEN 19:45UA 599	47m Denver	DEN 20:32 → SNA 22:01UA 725	7h 20m	53%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON