Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 46%, against 32% on a calm day. Safest: UA 750 at 20:04, 43%.

Safest bet today UA 750 IAH 20:04 → BNA 22:25 · 43% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 4785 IAH 17:53 → BNA 19:55 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Weather 46% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 32% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 750 United	IAH 20:04	BNA 22:25	43%	16%	0.2%	no record
UA 1318 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	BNA 14:02	43%	14%	0.4%	79%worse than usual
UA 1326 United Flight history →	IAH 20:35	BNA 22:42	45%	16%	0.2%	67%worse than usual
UA 2165 United Flight history →	IAH 16:20	BNA 18:27	47%	16%	0.2%	49%
UA 5359 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 18:20	BNA 20:34	49%	19%	0.2%	60%
UA 4785 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 17:53	BNA 19:55	51%	19%	0.2%	73%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON