Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:01 pm at Houston); 6 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 62% (calm day: 28%). Best bet: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 18:34, 5% on time.

Nonstops today


UA 521 United Flight history →	IAH 18:15	BOS 23:19	48%	19%	0.2%	68%worse than usual
B6 1632 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 18:31	BOS 23:24	75%	38%	0.5%	37%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAH 18:19 → DEN 20:14UA 1654	3h 45m Denver	DEN 23:59 → BOS 05:58 +1UA 2656	10h 39m	98%	76%
United Details →	IAH 19:50 → LAX 21:26UA 483	1h 38m Los Angeles	LAX 23:04 → BOS 07:45 +1UA 2210	10h 55m	89%	60%
United Details →	IAH 17:09 → ORD 20:05UA 2135	1h 36m Chicago	ORD 21:41 → BOS 01:14 +1UA 1779	7h 05m	82%	56%
American Details →	IAH 17:39 → PHX 18:28AA 640	3h 17m Phoenix	PHX 21:45 → BOS 05:45 +1AA 2701	11h 06m	87%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	IAH 18:19 → PDX 20:50AS 1421	1h 06m Portland	PDX 21:56 → BOS 06:20 +1AS 436	11h 01m	71%	52%
American Details →	IAH 17:26 → CLT 21:10AA 1920	1h 16m Charlotte	CLT 22:26 → BOS 00:37 +1AA 1843	6h 11m	63%	36%
Delta Details →	IAH 18:34 → ATL 21:54DL 1223	46m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865	5h 46m	17%	5%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON