Today: UA 8150 at 18:13 is the safest bet, 35% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36–60%.

Safest bet today UA 8150 IAH 18:13 → DCA 22:34 · 35% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5589 IAH 19:47 → DCA 22:49 · 60% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 40% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 8150 United	IAH 18:13	DCA 22:34	35%	10%	0.3%	no record
UA 1627 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	DCA 22:15	36%	10%	0.3%	66%
UA 2224 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	DCA 23:59	37%	13%	0.3%	70%
OH 5589 PSA	IAH 19:47	DCA 22:49	60%	23%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON