Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 44%, against 31% on a calm day. Safest: UA 1444 at 19:55, 38%.

Safest bet today UA 1444 IAH 19:55 → EWR 00:37 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest UA 2608 IAH 14:49 → EWR 19:35 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Weather 44% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1444 United Flight history →	IAH 19:55	EWR 00:37	38%	11%	0.5%	76%worse than usual
UA 1340 United Flight history →	IAH 10:57	EWR 15:34	39%	10%	0.7%	73%worse than usual
UA 404 United Flight history →	IAH 18:18	EWR 23:00	40%	11%	0.5%	66%
UA 1397 United Flight history →	IAH 13:45	EWR 18:29	46%	14%	0.5%	74%worse than usual
UA 700 United Flight history →	IAH 16:47	EWR 21:29	48%	19%	0.5%	64%worse than usual
UA 2371 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	EWR 16:46	48%	11%	0.6%	72%worse than usual
UA 2608 United Flight history →	IAH 14:49	EWR 19:35	52%	16%	0.5%	59%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	IAH 16:40 → MSY 17:59UA 6173 · flown by Mesa	58m New Orleans	MSY 18:57 → EWR 22:54UA 2841	5h 14m	76%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON