Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 33–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 2388 IAH 16:35 → IAD 20:46 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest UA 1373 IAH 18:32 → IAD 22:43 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2388 United Flight history →	IAH 16:35	IAD 20:46	33%	9%	0.3%	70%
UA 1968 United	IAH 20:16	IAD 00:13	35%	9%	0.2%	no record
UA 1373 United Flight history →	IAH 18:32	IAD 22:43	35%	11%	0.3%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON