Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:29 pm at Houston); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 465 at 19:59, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 465 United Flight history →	IAH 19:59	IND 23:26	26%	14%	0.2%	73%
UA 6132 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 16:35	IND 20:03	25%	8%	0.0%	75%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	IAH 17:02 → ORD 20:24AA 4426 · flown by Republic	2h 05m Chicago	ORD 22:29 → IND 00:50 +1AA 4363 · flown by Republic	6h 48m	83%	67%
United Details →	IAH 16:35 → IAD 20:46UA 2388	1h 30m Dulles	IAD 22:16 → IND 23:59UA 3997 · flown by Mesa	6h 24m	83%	59%
Delta Details →	IAH 16:51 → ATL 20:13DL 2890	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 21:56 → IND 23:35DL 3153	5h 44m	79%	31%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	IAH 17:40 → MSP 20:32DL 2617	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 21:40 → IND 00:16 +1DL 674	5h 36m	63%	49%
American Details →	IAH 17:26 → CLT 21:10AA 1920	1h 18m Charlotte	CLT 22:28 → IND 00:09 +1AA 1033	5h 43m	63%	39%
Delta Details →	IAH 18:53 → ATL 21:57DL 1651	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 23:04 → IND 00:41 +1DL 2657	4h 48m	46%	14%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON