Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 35–38% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 2304 IAH 20:12 → OKC 21:47 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest UA 5278 IAH 18:12 → OKC 19:53 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2304 United Flight history →	IAH 20:12	OKC 21:47	35%	10%	0.3%	67%
UA 1084 United	IAH 19:56	OKC 21:27	37%	12%	0.3%	no record
UA 5278 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 18:12	OKC 19:53	38%	15%	0.5%	72%
UA 6189 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:35	OKC 16:15	15%	2%	0.0%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON