Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 35–37% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 1663 IAH 18:05 → PHL 22:29 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest AA 1925 IAH 16:27 → PHL 20:55 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1663 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	PHL 22:29	35%	16%	0.5%	75%worse than usual
AA 2486 American	IAH 16:33	PHL 21:14	37%	15%	0.6%	no record
AA 1925 American Flight history →	IAH 16:27	PHL 20:55	37%	15%	0.6%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON