Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:03 pm at Indianapolis); 10 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via O'Hare, leaving 20:10, is the safest bet: 47% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 44% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IND 20:10 → ORD 20:37UA 3657 · flown by Republic	1h 04m Chicago	ORD 21:41 → BOS 01:14 +1UA 1779	5h 04m	75%	47%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IND 19:44 → CLT 21:30AA 1939	56m Charlotte	CLT 22:26 → BOS 00:37 +1AA 1843	4h 53m	44%	21%
Delta Details →	IND 20:00 → ATL 21:50DL 3120	50m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865	5h 20m	50%	21%
American Details →	IND 19:10 → PHL 21:09AA 1957	1h 11m Philadelphia	PHL 22:20 → BOS 23:49AA 1874	4h 39m	56%	18%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON