Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:59 pm at Indianapolis); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 1456 at 19:27, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 1456 Delta Flight history →	IND 19:27	MSP 20:20	29%	8%	0.1%	87%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IND 18:33 → ORD 19:00UA 5435 · flown by SkyWest	2h 28m Chicago	ORD 21:28 → MSP 23:10UA 1131	5h 37m	98%	62%
American Details →	IND 19:51 → ORD 20:29AA 1951	2h 07m Chicago	ORD 22:36 → MSP 00:22 +1AA 4472 · flown by Republic	5h 31m	78%	59%
Delta Details →	IND 18:28 → ATL 20:19DL 3126	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	7h 11m	96%	23%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IND 20:10 → ORD 20:37UA 3657 · flown by Republic	51m Chicago	ORD 21:28 → MSP 23:10UA 1131	4h 00m	66%	42%
United Details →	IND 18:33 → ORD 19:00UA 5435 · flown by SkyWest	57m Chicago	ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005	4h 08m	47%	30%
American Details →	IND 18:18 → DFW 19:48AA 1956	1h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:30 → MSP 23:57AA 3149	6h 39m	73%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON