Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 68%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1480 at 15:41, 58%.

Safest bet today DL 1480 JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest B6 719 JFK 20:59 → ATL 23:45 · 79% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Weather 68% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1480 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:41	ATL 18:34	58%	30%	1.1%	76%worse than usual
DL 962 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:00	ATL 22:11	64%	27%	0.9%	80%worse than usual
DL 2293 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:40	ATL 20:46	69%	30%	0.7%	78%worse than usual
B6 719 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:59	ATL 23:45	79%	43%	1.7%	63%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON