Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:10 pm at New York); 6 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, B6 102 at 22:39, with a 49% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


B6 102 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 22:39	BUF 00:25	49%	20%	0.8%	65%worse than usual
DL 5264 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 22:40	BUF 00:38	17%	9%	8.4%	83%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	JFK 19:30 → DTW 22:04DL 1253	46m Detroit	DTW 22:50 → BUF 23:58DL 978	4h 28m	33%	20%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON