Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:29 pm at New York)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 64% (calm day: 38%). Best bet: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 17:40, 20% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 17:40 → ATL 20:46DL 2293	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → BWI 00:39 +1DL 2590	6h 59m	82%	20%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	JFK 17:30 → BOS 19:15DL 5798 · flown by Republic	1h 20m Boston	BOS 20:35 → BWI 22:29DL 5851 · flown by Republic	4h 59m	57%	42%
Delta Details →	JFK 17:40 → ATL 20:46DL 2293	50m Atlanta	ATL 21:36 → BWI 23:42DL 2670	6h 02m	26%	7%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON