Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:39 pm at New York); 9 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 56%, against 46% on a calm day. Safest: AA 3120 at 17:00, 56%.

Nonstops today


AA 3120 American Flight history →	JFK 17:00	CLT 19:30	56%	18%	0.6%	70%worse than usual
DL 5036 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 20:29	CLT 23:03	28%	14%	8.2%	72%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	JFK 16:51 → PIT 18:39AA 4734 · flown by Republic	1h 39m Pittsburgh	PIT 20:18 → CLT 21:57AA 2930	5h 06m	89%	59%
American Details →	JFK 17:46 → MIA 20:38AA 2603	1h 47m Miami	MIA 22:25 → CLT 00:35 +1AA 1212	6h 49m	81%	58%
Delta Details →	JFK 17:40 → ATL 20:46DL 2293	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	6h 18m	78%	41%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	JFK 17:46 → MIA 20:38AA 2603	1h 17m Miami	MIA 21:55 → CLT 00:02 +1AA 2231	6h 16m	64%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON