Today: DL 1419 at 15:30 is the safest bet, 31% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–49%.

Safest bet today DL 1419 JFK 15:30 → FLL 18:54 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest B6 1801 JFK 17:42 → FLL 20:42 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1419 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:30	FLL 18:54	31%	15%	0.5%	75%
DL 1414 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:58	FLL 23:28	35%	13%	0.5%	68%
B6 1201 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:54	FLL 19:03	42%	23%	0.7%	77%worse than usual
B6 1701 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:00	FLL 23:23	46%	22%	0.6%	53%
B6 1501 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 17:43	FLL 21:04	47%	22%	0.7%	64%worse than usual
B6 1801 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 17:42	FLL 20:42	49%	23%	0.6%	65%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON