Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 44–52% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 1428 JFK 19:55 → MIA 23:37 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest AA 1922 JFK 21:27 → MIA 00:33 · 52% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 47% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 62% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 13 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1428 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:55	MIA 23:37	44%	11%	0.6%	70%worse than usual
AA 2026 American Flight history →	JFK 21:00	MIA 00:21	45%	11%	0.6%	59%
AA 1922 American	JFK 21:27	MIA 00:33	52%	13%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON