Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 58%, against 39% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2339 at 17:00, 53%.

Safest bet today AA 2339 JFK 17:00 → PHX 19:31 · 53% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest DL 784 JFK 20:55 → PHX 23:37 · 62% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Weather 58% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 39% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2339 American Flight history →	JFK 17:00	PHX 19:31	53%	29%	0.7%	78%worse than usual
DL 798 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:29	PHX 20:08	55%	30%	0.7%	73%worse than usual
AA 2606 American	JFK 17:08	PHX 19:25	55%	30%	0.7%	no record
AA 2689 American Flight history →	JFK 19:30	PHX 22:01	60%	32%	0.8%	62%worse than usual
AA 819 American	JFK 19:01	PHX 21:18	62%	34%	0.8%	no record
DL 784 Delta Flight history →	JFK 20:55	PHX 23:37	62%	37%	0.8%	65%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON