Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 26–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 1732 JFK 21:15 → SFO 00:53 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time Riskiest B6 515 JFK 20:59 → SFO 00:38 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 44% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 20 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1732 Delta Flight history →	JFK 21:15	SFO 00:53	26%	16%	0.4%	64%
AA 177 American Flight history →	JFK 21:26	SFO 00:59	29%	10%	0.3%	66%
B6 515 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:59	SFO 00:38	35%	14%	0.4%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON